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	<title>创业投资与创业融资 &#187; 尽职调查</title>
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		<title>从浑水公司的操作，看怎样做尽职调查</title>
		<link>http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/muddy-waters-research-jinzhidiaocha/</link>
		<comments>http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/muddy-waters-research-jinzhidiaocha/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jan 2012 13:21:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tutubishop</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[创业投资]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[尽职调查]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[浑水如何调查公司 转自《新世纪》周刊第484期 对在美上市的中国概念股而言，以狙击和做空问题中概股为目标的浑水调查公司（Muddy Waters Research，下称浑水）不是一个令人愉悦的名字。 截至目前，浑水已狙击了东方纸业（AMEX:ONP）、绿诺国际（NASDAQ:RINO）、中国高速频道（NASDAQ:CCME）、多元环球水务（NYSE:DGW）、嘉汉林业（TSE:TRE）和分众传媒（NASDAQ:FMCN）。受其攻击的公司大部分股价均出现大幅下跌，其中绿诺国际和中国高速频道已退市，多元环球水务已停牌。浑水及相关利益公司亦因此获益匪浅。 浑水成立于2010年6月28日，创始人是一名叫卡尔森·布洛克的美国人。卡尔森毕业于南加州大学，主攻金融辅修中文，后攻读了芝加哥肯特法学院的法学学位。他2005年来到上海，就职于一家美国律所；2008年创办了一家仓储物流公司；2010年创办浑水，主要做空在国外上市的中国概念股。目前浑水在调查造假公司方面可谓驾轻就熟，多次狙击成功，令中国概念股颜面尽失。 当然，浑水的狙击亦偶有失手。2011年7月初，浑水在其网站上发布了一封致展讯通信高层的公开信，对其财务数据提出质疑，展讯股价应声暴跌34%。展讯随即澄清，证明疑点不成立，股价遂出现“V”型反转并在随后数月时间里创出历史新高。 总体而言，为什么浑水做空的成功率如此之高？ 一方面，很多中国概念股本身就存在或多或少的道德风险。类似问题在A股市场可能习以为常、见怪不怪，但是在美国市场就存在着一套很成熟的制衡机制，就像生态系统一样优胜劣汰。作为“狙击者”，有漏洞存在，浑水才能狙击成功。苍蝇不叮无缝的鸡蛋，就像索罗斯袭击的对象一定是财政、货币体制出现严重漏洞的国家，客观而言，这种行为反而促进了被攻击的国家的金融体系体制改革。无论是浑水，还是索罗斯，都是保持金融“生态系统”趋向均衡的关键因素。 另一方面，浑水在攻击一家上市公司前做了大量研究，为猎杀做了充分的准备。浑水发表的质疑报告中篇幅最短的有21页，最长的达80页。做多和做空都需要做调研，但方法论截然不同，做多是“证实”，优点和缺点都要考量，权衡之下才能给出“买入”的评级；做空则是“证伪”，俗称“找茬”，只要找到企业的财务、经营造假证据，“硬伤”一经发现，即可成为做空的理由，类似于“一票否决制”。 对于中美上市公司道德风险问题及证券市场监管体制，已有很多文章做过深刻研究，这里不再赘述。归纳总结浑水的报告之后，可反推出其整套调研体系，总体来看分为两个相互渗透的方式：查阅资料和实地调研，调查内容涉及到公司及关联方、供应商、客户、竞争对手、行业专家等各个方面。 查阅资料 查阅资料和实地调研结合是了解一个公司真实面貌必做的功课。尽管无从得知浑水是如何选择攻击对象的——有可能是初步查阅资料和财务分析发现疑点并顺藤摸瓜，也有可能是有内部人提供线索，但在选定攻击对象后，浑水必对上市公司的各种公开资料做详细研读。这些资料包括招股说明书、年报、临时公告、官方网站、媒体报道等，时间跨度常常很大。比如在调查分众传媒时，浑水查阅了2005-2011年这六年时间的并购重组事件，从中摘录了重要信息，包括并购时间、对象、金额等，并根据这些信息做了顺藤摸瓜式的延伸，进一步查阅了并购对象的官网、业务结构等。 理论上讲，“信息元”都不会孤立存在，必然和别的节点有关联。对于造假的企业来说，要编制一个天衣无缝的谎言，需要将与之有关联的所有“信息元”全部疏通，对好“口供”，但这么做的成本非常高，所以造假的企业只会掩盖最明显的漏洞，心怀侥幸心理，无暇顾及其他漏洞。而延伸信息的搜索范围，就可以找到逻辑上可能存在矛盾的地方，为下一阶段的调研打下基础。比如浑水根据公开信息，层层挖掘出了分众传媒收购案中涉及的众多高层的关系图，为揭开分众传媒收购案例内幕提供了重要线索。 调查关联方 除了上市公司本身，浑水还非常重视对关联方的调查。关联方一般是掏空上市公司的重要推手。关联方包括大股东、实际控制人、兄弟公司等，还包括那些表面看似没有关联关系，但实际上听命于实际控制人的公司。浑水在查阅绿诺国际的资料时，发现上市公司2008年和2009年所得税率应该为15%，但实际纳税为零。经过进一步查证，发现上市公司仅为一个壳，所有资产和收入均在关联方的名下，上市公司利润仅为关联方“账面腾挪”过来，属于过账的“名义利润”，并发现实际控制人向上市公司“借”了320万美元买豪宅，属于明令禁止的“掏空上市公司”的行为。 公司实地调研 对公司实地调研是取证的重要环节。浑水的调研工作非常细致，调研周期往往持续很久，比如对分众传媒的调研时间长达半年。调研的形式包括但不限于电话访谈、当面交流和实地观察。正所谓“耳听为虚，眼见为实”，实地调研的结果往往会大大超出预期。浑水一般会去上市公司办公地点与其高层访谈，询问公司的经营情况。浑水更重视的是观察工厂环境、机器设备、库存，与工人及工厂周边的居民交流，了解公司的真实运营情况，甚至偷偷在厂区外观察进出厂区的车辆运载情况，拍照取证。浑水将实际调研的所见所闻与公司发布的信息相比较，其中逻辑矛盾的地方，就是上市公司被攻击的软肋。 例如在调查东方纸业时，浑水发现工厂破烂不堪，机器设备是上世纪90年代的旧设备，办公环境潮湿，不符合造纸厂的生产条件。发现库存基本是一堆废纸，惊呼：“如果这堆废纸值490万美元，那这个世界绝对比我想象的要富裕的多得多。” 在调查中国高速频道时，浑水实地察看了50多辆公交车上终端广告播放情况，发现司机都喜欢播放自带的DVD节目，高速频道对终端控制力较弱。调查多元环球水务时，看到其中一个办公地点形同虚设，员工毫无工作状态，戏称之为“成人托管所”。 调查供应商 为了解公司真实经营情况，浑水多调研上市公司的供应商，印证上市公司资料的真实性。同时，浑水也会关注供应商的办公环境，供应商的产能、销量和销售价格等经营数据，并且十分关注供应商对上市公司的评价，以此作为与上市公司公开信息对比的基准，去评判供应商是否有实力去和被调查公司进行符合公开资料的商贸往来。浑水甚至假扮客户去给供应商打电话，了解情况。 比如在调查东方纸业时，浑水发现所有供应商的产能之和都远小于东方纸业的采购量。调查嘉汉林业时，则发现其供应商和客户竟然是同一家公司，公司干的是自买自卖、体内循环的把戏。调查中国高速频道时，发现上市公司声称自己拥有独有的硬件驱动系统，但是中国高速频道的供应商在阿里巴巴网站公开销售同样的产品，任何人都能轻易购得。 除了传统意义上的供货商，浑水的调查对象还包括给上市公司提供审计和法律咨询服务的会计师和律师事务所等机构。如在调查多元环球水务时，浑水去会计师事务所查阅了原版的审计报告，证实上市公司篡改了审计报告，把收入至少夸大了100倍。 调研客户 浑水尤其重视对客户的调研。调查方式亦包括查阅资料和实地调研，包括网络调查、电话询问，实地访谈等。浑水重点核实客户的实际采购量、采购价格以及客户对上市公司及其产品的评价。如浑水发现中国高速频道、绿诺国际宣称的部分客户关系根本不存在，而多元环球水务的客户（经销商）资料纯属子虚乌有，所谓的80多个经销商的电话基本打不通，能打通的公司，也从未听说过多元环球水务。 核对下游客户的实际采购量能较好地反映上市公司公布信息的真实性。以东方纸业为例，浑水通过电话沟通及客户官网披露的经营信息，逐一核对各个客户对东方纸业的实际采购量，最终判断出东方纸业虚增收入。虚增的方法其实很简单，即拟定假合同和开假发票，这也是国内上市公司造假的通用方法。 客户对上市公司的评价亦是评判上市公司经营能力的重要指标。绿诺国际的客户对其评价恶劣，称之为业界一家小公司，其脱硫技术由一家科研单位提供，不算独有，更不算先进，而且脱硫效果差，运营成本高，其产品并非像其声称的那样前途一片光明。 倾听竞争对手 浑水很注重参考竞争对手的经营和财务情况，借以判断上市公司的价值，尤其愿意倾听竞争对手对上市公司的评价调查，这有助于了解整个行业的现状，不会局限于上市公司的一家之言。 在调查东方纸业的时候，浑水把东方纸业的工厂照片与竞争对手晨鸣纸业、太阳纸业、玖龙纸业和华泰纸业等做了对比后发现：东方纸业只能算一个作坊。再对比东方纸业和竞争对手的销售价格和毛利率发现，东方纸业的毛利率水平处于一个不可能达到的高度，盈利水平与行业严重背离。 在调查绿诺国际和中国高速频道时，它们都宣称在本行业里有某些竞争者——这些竞争者基本都是在行业内知名度很高，然而浑水去访谈竞争对手发现，这些竞争对手竟然都不知道他们的存在。 请教行业专家 在查阅资料和实地调研这两个阶段，浑水有一个必杀技——请教行业专家。正所谓“闻道有先后，术业有专攻”，请教行业内的专家有利于加深对行业的理解。该行业的特性、正常毛利率、某种型号的生产设备市场价格，从行业专家处得到的信息效率更快、可信度更高。如当年银广夏被调查一样，一般人难以断定其生产过程的真伪，而行内专家对此却熟稔于心。浑水在调查嘉汉林业时请教税务专家、调查东方纸业时请教机械专家、调查分众传媒时请教传媒专家、调查绿诺国际时请教脱硫技术专家、调查多元环球水务时请教过制造业专家⋯⋯援引专家的言论，总是比自己的判断更有说服力，这也是浑水乐于请教专家的原因之一。 重估公司价值 在整个调研过程中，浑水常会根据实际调研的结果来评估公司的价值。如对东方纸业大致重估了存货的价值，并且拍摄工厂照片和DV，请机械工程专家来评估机器设备的实际价值；还观察工厂门口车辆的数量和运载量来评估公司的实际业务量。 浑水亦善于通过供应商、客户、竞争对手以及行业专家提供的信息来判断整个行业的情况，然后根据相关数据估算上市公司真实的业务情况。价值重估不可能做到十分准确，但是能大致计算出数量级，具有极强的参考意义。为了达到做空的目的，浑水在狙击上市公司的时候，不排除有恶意低估其资产价值的可能，但就调研方法而言，确有值得借鉴之处。 浑水的调研方法只是正常的尽职调查，在方法论上并无多大创新，他们极少运用复杂的估值模型去判断一家公司的价值；然而最简单的方法往往是最有效的方法，调研的收获远远大于办公室里的数据处理。在实施层面上，他们把工作做得很细致，偶尔也会使用些“投机取巧”的方法获取真实信息——比如假冒潜在客户骗取上市公司信任。 这么多案例做下来，浑水基本总结了中国概念股造假的一些规律，包括设立壳公司、拟假合同、开假发票等，目的是虚增资产和利润，伺机掏空上市公司。这些都成为浑水关注的重点，也成为了他们取证的重要依据。由于浑水的调研体系全方位覆盖了被调查对象的情况，如果想彻底蒙骗过去，那得把所有涉及的方面都做系统的规划，这不仅包括不计其数的公开资料都口径一致，也得和所有客户、供应商都对好口供，还得把工商、税务、海关等政府部门圈进来。如此造假，成本极其高昂，绝对不比做个真实的公司去赚钱来得轻松。<table class="wumii-related-items" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" width="100%" style="clear: both;">
    
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		<title>尽职调查的内容和企业可能发生的危机</title>
		<link>http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/%e5%b0%bd%e8%81%8c%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%e7%9a%84%e5%86%85%e5%ae%b9%e5%92%8c%e4%bc%81%e4%b8%9a%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e5%8f%91%e7%94%9f%e7%9a%84%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba/</link>
		<comments>http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/%e5%b0%bd%e8%81%8c%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%e7%9a%84%e5%86%85%e5%ae%b9%e5%92%8c%e4%bc%81%e4%b8%9a%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e5%8f%91%e7%94%9f%e7%9a%84%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jan 2010 14:13:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tutubishop</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[创业投资]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[企业]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[尽职调查]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[市场]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[技术]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[管理]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[财务]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[资产]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/?p=191</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[尽职调查过程中，不但要仔细参观企业，与企业的中高层管理人员交谈，还要要求目标企业提供企业的历史变更、重大合同、财务报告、财务预测、各项细分的财务数据以及客户名单、供应商名单、技术及产品说明和成功案例分析等等。可能的话最好还要咨询企业的供应商、客户、律师和贷款银行，乃至管理人员过去的雇主和同事。甚至还需要调查提供信息的有关人员，以证明提供的信息是否可靠。 <table class="wumii-related-items" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" width="100%" style="clear: both;">
    
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                        <font size="-1" color="#333333" style="line-height: 1.65em; font-size: 12px !important;">从浑水公司的操作，看怎样做尽职调查</font>
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                        <font size="-1" color="#333333" style="line-height: 1.65em; font-size: 12px !important;">怎样获得VC的投资 8 —— VC 的尽职调查与企业的反向调查</font>
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                        <font size="-1" color="#333333" style="line-height: 1.65em; font-size: 12px !important;">买个小咖啡馆，怎样做尽职调查？</font>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>买个小咖啡馆，怎样做尽职调查？</title>
		<link>http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/%e4%b9%b0%e4%b8%aa%e5%b0%8f%e5%92%96%e5%95%a1%e9%a6%86%ef%bc%8c%e6%80%8e%e6%a0%b7%e5%81%9a%e5%b0%bd%e8%81%8c%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%ef%bc%9f/</link>
		<comments>http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/%e4%b9%b0%e4%b8%aa%e5%b0%8f%e5%92%96%e5%95%a1%e9%a6%86%ef%bc%8c%e6%80%8e%e6%a0%b7%e5%81%9a%e5%b0%bd%e8%81%8c%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%ef%bc%9f/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jan 2010 12:23:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tutubishop</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[创业投资]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[创业]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[卖主]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[占用资金]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[尽职调查]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[店主]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[投资]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[营业额]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/?p=160</guid>
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                        <font size="-1" color="#333333" style="line-height: 1.65em; font-size: 12px !important;">怎样获得VC的投资 8 —— VC 的尽职调查与企业的反向调查</font>
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</table>]]></description>
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		<title>如果有人拿着项目找你投资——初步洽谈时着重了解什么</title>
		<link>http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/%e6%9c%89%e4%ba%ba%e6%8b%bf%e7%9d%80%e9%a1%b9%e7%9b%ae%e6%89%be%e4%bd%a0%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%ef%bc%8c%e5%88%9d%e6%ad%a5%e6%b4%bd%e8%b0%88%e6%97%b6%e7%9d%80%e9%87%8d%e4%ba%86%e8%a7%a3%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88/</link>
		<comments>http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/%e6%9c%89%e4%ba%ba%e6%8b%bf%e7%9d%80%e9%a1%b9%e7%9b%ae%e6%89%be%e4%bd%a0%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%ef%bc%8c%e5%88%9d%e6%ad%a5%e6%b4%bd%e8%b0%88%e6%97%b6%e7%9d%80%e9%87%8d%e4%ba%86%e8%a7%a3%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jan 2010 12:10:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tutubishop</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[创业投资]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[创业融资]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[产品]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[创业]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[尽职调查]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[市场]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[管理团队]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[风险投资]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[高科技]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/?p=152</guid>
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		<title>怎样获得VC的投资 8 —— VC 的尽职调查与企业的反向调查</title>
		<link>http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/%e6%80%8e%e6%a0%b7%e8%8e%b7%e5%be%97vc%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84-8-vc-%e7%9a%84%e5%b0%bd%e8%81%8c%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%e4%b8%8e%e4%bc%81%e4%b8%9a%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%8d%e5%90%91%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5/</link>
		<comments>http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/%e6%80%8e%e6%a0%b7%e8%8e%b7%e5%be%97vc%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84-8-vc-%e7%9a%84%e5%b0%bd%e8%81%8c%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5%e4%b8%8e%e4%bc%81%e4%b8%9a%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%8d%e5%90%91%e8%b0%83%e6%9f%a5/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Dec 2009 13:37:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>tutubishop</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[创业融资]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[创业投资]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[审核]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[尽职调查]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[风险]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[风险投资]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.vc-investment.net/blog/?p=39</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[融资博奕 VC对企业的调查 ＆ 企业对VC的调查 初步审核之后，如果VC对你的企业感兴趣，双方又就投资条款达成了一致意见，接下来他们就要做详尽的管理、市场、技术和财务审核验证。尽职调查需双方预先同意，其目的是评估投资后的风险，同时也是为了能在投资后有针对性地提供增值服务。 什么是尽职调查 尽职调查就是对企业的历史数据和文档、管理人员的背景、市场风险、管理风险、技术风险和资金风险做一个全面深入的审核。如果VC内部没有懂行的专业人士， 他们也可能请外部的咨询顾问对市场和技术作一个评估。财务方面的尽职调查一般要请专业的审计师来做，会出一份专业的会计师审计报告，以汇总说明企业的财务 状况和会计政策。 尽职调查的过程一般需要几个星期的时间，当然也有这样的VC，他们对企业的技术和市场很了解，又有丰富的管理经验，这样只要几天仔细的现场调研就可以作出最终投资决定。 企业如何对待VC的尽职调查 一份完美的商业计划书、一个精心准备的幻灯演示和富有感染力的表达能力，只能赢得VC的兴趣和投资意向；但要最终获得资金，还需要在尽职调查过程中让投资 商全面了解企业法律结构的演变历史、历史经营情况和发展预期、财务状况和盈利开支预测、以及公司的内部管理状况；同时也要配合VC向合作伙伴、客户和供应 商了解企业的市场和资源，这样才能以充分的证据证实自己企业物有所值。 VC在尽职调查过程中会提出大量的问题，要求查验很多历史资料。这不但是企业证明自己的机会，也是企业发现自身问题、提高自我的机会。面对近乎繁琐的提问和查证，企业家需要心平气和的积极配合。 VC对企业尽职调查的内容 尽职调查的内容一般包括以下这些方面： 1.   管理人员的背景调查 2.   市场评估 3.   销售和采购订单的完成情况 4.   环境评估 5.   生产运作系统 6.   管理信息系统（汇报体系） 7.   财务预测的方法及过去预测的准确性 8.   销售量及财务预测的假设前提 9.   财务报表、销售和采购的票据的核实 10.   当前的现金、应收应付及债务状况 11.   贷款的可能性 12.   资产核查，库存和设备清单的核实 13.   工资福利和退休基金的安排 14. [...]<table class="wumii-related-items" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" border="0" width="100%" style="clear: both;">
    
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